Week 15 NFL ATS Picks

There were games yesterday? On a Saturday? During conference title games? Okay. I guess we lose out on picking those games, but never fear! There are a fresh crop of 13 games with which we can do our picking. Last week our model went a disappointing 8-8, and I went a solid-but-not-great 9-7. This week we will try to do better, so let’s get to it!

Records:

My record: 17-14 (9-7 last week, 7-3 MCF)

Model’s record: 18-12-1 (8-8 last week, 5-5 MCF)

Texans @ Colts (-7)

This week is going to take the season from bad to worse for the Texans. I really want to take the points here, but the Colts defense is going to clamp down on a weapon-less Watson. The Texans desperately need to get Watson some help, or we’re all going to forget about one of the greatest QB talents in the league.

My pick: Colts -7

Model’s pick: Texans 21 // Colts 31

Bears @ Vikings (-3)

I think that these are teams that in the micro, are trending in completely opposite directions. The Bears are soaring after a complete game by the offense *and* the defense, while the Vikings need to figure out their kicking game in a hurry. I think this game is close, but that the Bears defense finds a way to pull it out in the end.

My pick: Bears +3

Model’s pick: Bears 30 // Vikings 23

Lions @ Titans (-9.5)

Someone please go tell Stafford that he doesn’t have to play every game. He’s trying to play on literally half a body, and this Titans defense is going to get to pin their ears back and run full steam at him. The Lions don’t have a prayer.

My pick: Titans -9.5

Model’s pick: Lions 24 // Titans 37

Jaguars @ Ravens (-13)

Take out a second mortgage and put it on the Ravens today. Just trust me.

My pick: Ravens -13

Model’s pick: Jaguars 14 // Ravens 32

Patriots @ Dolphins (-1.5)

This is one of the hardest games for me to call. On one hand, Belichick is 11-0 playing against rookie QB’s. On the other hand, this Dolphins team is pretty special. What this one comes down to for me is a lack of good receivers on the Dolphins team. As much as I hate to do it, I’m taking the Patriots and Bill to move to 12-0. Is what I would say if I listened to my brain. BUT IT’S TUA TIME BABY, GIVE ME THE FINS (as in, I wrote this before seeing that Harris was out for the Patriots lol)

My pick: Dolphins -1.5

Model’s pick: Patriots 17 // Dolphins 18 (Actual margin is 1.5, PUSH)

49ers @ Cowboys (+3)

This is another game that I would bet the house on San Francisco. They should roll over the Cowboys today.

My pick: 49ers

Model’s pick: 49ers 35 // Cowboys 15

Seahawks @ WFT (+6.5)

Without Alex Smith, I just have no confidence in Washington. As sad as it makes me, I’ll lay the touchdown and pick Seattle.

My pick: Seahawks -6.5

Model’s pick: Seahawks 25 // WFT 18

Bucs @ Falcons (+6.5)

Every time I pick the Falcons, I get burned. So, I simply will pick the hot team in the Bucs and go about my day.

My pick: Bucs -6.5

Model’s pick: Bucs 32 // Falcons 20

Jets @ Rams (-17)

I made the mistake of overthinking this line. The Rams defense is too damn good to let the Jets even think about covering this spread. Rams by a million

My pick: Rams -17

Model’s pick: Jets 3 // Rams 28

Eagles @ Cardinals (-6.5)

My Cardinals homer-ism will never allow me to pick against them. Hopkins against Darius Slay is going to be a bloodbath, and *fingers crossed* Murray will finally really get it going again. Cardinals by a million

My pick: Cardinals -6.5

Model’s pick: Eagle 25 // Cardinals 34

Chiefs @ Saints (+3)

I really don’t get this line. I’ll take the Chiefs, especially with Thomas out for the Saints.

My pick: Chiefs (-3)

Model’s pick: Chiefs 31 // Saints 24

Browns @ Giants (+6.5)

I think the Browns are rolling and I don’t see Colt McCoy doing much here. Especially with Freddie Kitchens calling the plays. Don’t fall for the trap, don’t overthink this one, just take the Browns.

My pick: Browns -6.5

Model’s pick: Browns 21 // Giants 20

Steelers @ Bengals (+14)

Ryan Finley is starting at QB.

My pick: Steelers -14

Model’s pick: Steelers 32 // Bengals 13

My Most Confident 5:

Record: 7-3 (last week 3-2)

Ravens -13

Titans -9.5

49ers -3

Chiefs -3

Seattle -6.5

Model’s Most Confident 5:

Record: 5-5 (Last week 1-4)

Bears +3

Giants +6.5