Last Sunday was a very good week if you followed my model’s picks! Mine too, but my model hit it out of the park. A solid 10-4 overall and 4-1 in its 5 most confident picks. I myself hit 8-7 overall and 4-1 in my 5 most confident picks. So, not bad! VT has the Commonwealth Cup back in our grasps, so let’s see what this week has in store.
Model’s Record: 10-4 (MCF: 4-1)
My Record: 8-7 (MCF: 4-1)
Titans @ Jaguars (+9)
I’m not too sure about this game. If the spread was closer to a TD, I would slam this pick with no question. But 9 points is a lot to cover. I do think that the Titans bounce back and win (after all, they did show some life against the Browns in that second half), but the Jaguars have been no push over either. This is a game where I’m going to hold my nose and take the points, DUVALLLLL.
My pick: Jaguars +9
Model’s pick: Titans 36 // Jaguars 23
Cowboys @ Bengals (+3)
Please don’t watch this game. Please don’t bet on this game so that you have to watch this game. But if you *must* I personally like the Cowboys this game. I think they have too many good players at skill positions, and Andy Dalton is making his homecoming in Cincinnati. Not to mention that Dalton had a couple of plays where he looked mobile. It may have been a mirage, but I do think the Cowboys have some fight in them still.
My pick: Cowboys -3
Model’s pick: Cowboys 21 // Bengals 26
Cardinals @ Giants (+2)
Kyler’s shoulder is still a great mystery. Daniel Jones’ hamstring seems to be the same way this week. The Giants defense has been playing pretty well lately, and west coast teams tend to struggle travelling east. But I have way too much internal bias to pick against the Cardinals when I only have to lay 2 points against an NFC East team. Give me the RED BIRDS!!!
My pick: Cardinals -2
Model’s pick: Cardinals 18 // Giants 15 (note: actual predicted spread is closer to 2.5)
Texans @ Bears (+1)
This game is a bit of a head scratcher to me. On one hand, Deshaun Watson does seem to have survived losing Will Fuller V. But on the other hand, Trubisky does seem to have figured out how to play mediocre football. I think this game comes down to whether the Bears defense decides to show up or not. I think they do.
My pick: Bears +1
Model’s pick: Texans 22 // Bears 22 (note: because the predicted spread is pk, the model goes with the underdog)
Broncos @ Panthers (-3.5)
I’m going to be honest, I don’t get this line from Vegas. I actually think the Broncos have been playing some of their best football lately. The only reason the Panthers were able to hang with the Vikings was because of two unbelievable fumble recovery touchdowns. I’ll take the 3.5, and I would honestly think about going ML here on the Broncos.
My pick: Broncos +3.5
Model’s pick: Broncos 22 // Panthers 25
Vikings @ Buccaneers (-7)
Did you see the second half of the Chiefs Bucs game? I think the Bucs might have finally figured things out, and coming off a bye I really like them to win big. I don’t think Kirk Cousins has it this year and today is going to show the world that.
My pick: Bucs -7
Model’s pick: Vikings 25 // Bucs 30
Chiefs @ Dolphins (+7)
This game is actually a tough one. I listen exclusively to Miami sports radio (s/o to the Dan Lebatard Show with Stugotz), so maybe a little bias has snuck in. They believe that the Dolphins might win this game, I do not. Missing all of your RBs with a QB that seems like a game manager is not a recipe for success. I’ll take the Chiefs here.
My pick: Chiefs -7
Model’s pick: Chiefs 22 // Dolphins 18
Colts @ Raiders (+2.5)
Philip Rivers is battling through turf toe in this game, but the Raiders would have lost to the JETS if it wasn’t for the heroics of Gregg Williams and his blitzes. This is a tough matchup, and one I would likely stay away from. But for the purposes of this column, I’ll ride the better defense. GO COLTS
My pick: Colts -2.5
Model’s pick: Colts 26 // Raiders 31
Jets @ Seahawks (-15)
Jesus 15 points? I just don’t trust Seattle enough to cover 15 points. I might regret it, but I’ll take the Jets and pray that Russell Wilson doesn’t wake up and play like a God today.
My pick: Jets +15
Model’s pick: Jets 15 // Seahawks 34
Packers @ Lions (+8)
Stafford is still hurt (kind of) and Aaron Rodgers has never let me down before. Easy pick
My pick: Packers -8
Model’s pick: Packers 39 // Lions 27
Falcons @ Chargers (pk)
This game comes down to a simple question: Do you ride the hot hand, or do you hope that fate turns around? Sorry Herbert, I’m riding the hot hand.
My pick: Falcons (pk)
Model’s pick: Falcons 31 // Chargers 22
Saints @ Eagles (+8)
Is Jalen Hurts supposed to suddenly make me think that the Eagles are good? Keep with the Saints one more week guys, I promise it will pay off.
My pick: Saints -8
Model’s pick: Saints 33 // Eagles 15
Washington @ 49ers (-3)
Ron Rivera has his team playing like, well, a Football Team! They executed very well in all 3 phases of the game against the Steelers (in the second half) last week and looked like a cohesive unit. That being said, I think the 49ers will find a way to pull this off. I just don’t think Alex Smith can do enough with Antonio Gibson out. This will be a tough one, but I think the 49ers get a much needed win in Arizona (still weird right?)
My pick: 49ers -3
Model’s pick: Washington 23 // 49ers 18
Steelers @ Bills (-2.5)
The Steelers got exposed last week, and I don’t think much changes this week. GO BILLS
My pick: Bills -2.5
Model’s pick: Steelers 29 // Bills 26
Ravens @ Browns (+3)
This line is strange. This line really doesn’t make sense to me at all. The only thing that makes sense to me is that the Ravens do matchup well against the Browns, but is that enough to win the game by 3 points? I actually think so.
My pick: Ravens -3
Model’s pick: Ravens 25 // Browns 23
My Most Confident 5
Last week: 4-1
Overall: 4-1
Packers -8 @ Lions
Saints -8 @ Eagles
Vikings @ Bucs -7
Broncos +3.5 @ Panthers
Cowboys -3 @ Bengals
Model’s Most Confident 5
Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 4-1
Cowboys @ Bengals +3
Colts @ Raiders +2.5
Falcons pk @ Chargers
Saints -8 @ Eagles
Washington +3 @ 49ers
Spencer's Sports 