Howdy folks! I hope you’re all emotionally recovered from a rough 2nd half against Clemson. How often has this happened over the last 5 or so years? VT plays a tough first half against a highly ranked team, and then gets completely steamrolled in the second half. It feels like our team is a broken record. Anyways, let’s get to some NFL picks and let’s make some money! I have included my own analysis for each game, as well as what my computer model predicts. The model is firing at about 55%, but this is the first real test for it. Let’s go!!
Lions @ Bears (-3)
The Lions are what the Bears might be in just a few weeks. The Lions just fired Matt Patricia, and I have reason to believe that the players are pretty damn happy about that. On the other side of the ball, Matt Nagy could very well be on the way out after losing 6 games in a row and coaching an offense that doesn’t look capable of driving down the field against even a 9 man defense. This game likely comes down to the health of Bears’ defensive linemen Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. If they’re healthy and playing well, the Bears likely win. If not, I think the Lions can cover in a low scoring game.
My Pick: Bears (-3)
Model’s Pick: Lions 16 // Bears 19 PUSH
Bengals @ Dolphins (-10.5)
This is one of those games where the spread just looks way too big. This game also hinges largely on injury concerns. I think Tua leads this team to a blowout win, but I’m not as confident in a Fitzpatrick led team. The Bengals offense didn’t actually look as inept as I expected it too last week, putting up 17 points against the Giants. But on second thought, that was just the Giants. I’ll lay the points with Miami, although I think you would be better served staying away from this game.
My pick: Dolphins -10.5
Model’s pick: Bengals 11 // Dolphins 24
Colts @ Texans (+3)
I’m honestly a little surprised that the line is this small for the Colts. I understand that they just got blown out by the Titans, but the Colts are getting DeForest Buckner back off the Covid-19 list this week. Not to mention that the Titans are a really good football team that is peaking at the right time. Meanwhile, the Texans just lost their best receiver for the year in Will Fuller V (and a good corner too). I think this loss, coupled with the Colts defense being whole again leads to an easy Indianapolis victory.
My pick: Colts -3
Model’s pick: Colts 28 // Texans 19
Jaguars @ Vikings (-10.5)
Another game, another giant spread. Mike Glennon is back starting for the Jaguars and he is taking no prisoners. After dropping 25 points on the Browns defense, I don’t think that the Vikings are going to pose a much different challenge. The crux of the game comes down to whether Kirk Cousins can do enough against this Jaguars defense. I think he does enough to win, but not enough to cover. Give me the points!
My pick: Jaguars + 10.5
Model’s pick: Jaguars 26 // Vikings 30
Raiders @ Jets (+7.5)
I really think this line is Vegas overreacting to last week’s blowout loss to the Falcons. This Raiders team is pretty good, and the Jets can’t afford to win if they want Trevor Lawrence. If this spread was closer to 10 points I would consider it, but betting against the Jets has been a federal money printer this season – no reason to stop now.
My pick: Raiders -7.5
Model’s pick: Raiders 28 // Jets 20
Saints @ Falcons (+2)
Once again, I think this line is an overreaction to last week’s game between the Falcons and Raiders. Don’t get me wrong, the Falcons looked great, but are we forgetting that just two weeks ago the Saints destroyed the Falcons 24 to 9? This defensive front can get after Matt Ryan, something that the Raiders couldn’t do. Give me the Saints in another blowout win. (I also just love Taysom Hill, even if he doesn’t look like a long term answer)
My pick: Saints -2
Model’s pick: Saints 32 // Falcons 19
Browns @ Titans (-4.5)
I think the Browns are a good deal worse than their record says they are. They’ve had the advantage of being able to play in monsoon type winds for the last month, and when you’re a run-first team that’s a good thing. Baker Mayfield is going to have to throw the ball to beat the Titans, and this game is going to come down to whether he can do that. I actually believe he can be successful, but I also believe that this Browns defense can’t do much against the Titans. I’ll lay the 4.5 points, but I would feel a little nervous about this one.
My pick: Titans -4.5
Model’s pick: Browns 24 // Titans 39
Giants @ Seahawks (-10.5)
This is a pretty easy one for me actually. Colt McCoy is starting, the Eagles needed a miracle to not lose by 14, and the Giants are travelling west. It’s a huge spread, but the Seahawks are rounding into form at just the right time. I’ll lay the points, but I would personally buy the hook to get to -10.
My pick: Seahawks – 10.5
Model’s pick: Giants 18 // Seattle 30
Rams @ Cardinals (+2.5)
This writeup is going to hurt me. Kyler Murray doesn’t look as mobile in recent games. This Rams defensive front is going to force Kyler Murray to have to be on the run. The Cardinals offensive line has to be able to hold up to the defensive pressure that Aaron Donald brings, and I just don’t know if he’s going to be able to do that. That being said, the Cardinals do well defensively stopping the run – the focal point of the Rams offense. Call me a pessimist, but I think Goff has a bounce back game and that the Rams win it. I’ll lay the points.
My pick: Rams -2.5
Model’s pick: Rams 34 // Cardinals 26
Eagles @ Packers (-9)
Did you guys see what Aaron Rodgers did to the Bears defense???
My pick: Packers -9
Model’s pick: Eagles 22 // Packers 35
Patriots @ Chargers (-1.5)
This one is actually pretty simple for me. The Patriots *should* have lost last week’s game against the Patriots. The Chargers *should* have a better record than they do. I think this week is a regression back to the mean for both the Patriots and the Chargers, I’ll take Herbert and lay the 1.5 points.
My pick: Chargers -1.5
Model’s pick: Patriots 25 // Chargers 29
Broncos @ Chiefs (-13)
This spread is HUGE for how well the Broncos defense has been playing lately and for how not great the Chiefs offense looked in the second half at Tampa. I have a gut feeling that this game will be a close one for some reason, but I could never bet against the Chiefs. Betting against Mahomes is just too scary for me.
My pick: Chiefs -13
Model’s pick: Broncos 24 // Chiefs 34
Bills @ 49ers (-1)
Believe me, I want the Bills to win. I really do. I’m a self-professed die-hard Cardinals fan, and the 49ers winning football games scares me. I think the defensive front of the 49ers will be too much. I think Josh Allen is too loose with the football. I think he turns the ball over a couple of times and gives the 49ers the win. I don’t think this season is quite finished with Saleh’s defense, as much as I would like it to be.
My pick: 49ers -1
Model’s pick: Bills 23 // 49ers 19
Cowboys @ Ravens (-8)
Lamar Jackson coming off the COVID list is the only thing you need to know about this game. The Ravens defense shows up, and the offense will get going.
My pick: Ravens -8
Model’s pick: Cowboys 10 // Ravens 24
My most confident 5:
Bengals @ Dolphins -10.5
Colts -3 @ Texans
Raiders -7.5 @ Jets
Saints -2 @ Falcons
Eagles @ Packers -9
Model’s Most Confident 5:
Colts -3 @ Texans
Saints -2 @ Falcons
Jaguars +10.5 @ Vikings
Browns @ Titans -4.5
Cowboys @ Ravens -8
Spencer's Sports 